MeritValue

FIRST CAPITAL INC

FCAPdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'cash'

The thesis, from the filings

FIRST CAPITAL INC earns about 20% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $36.96 and $136.86 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$6.45M1$7.15M2$7.01M3$7.06M3$7.17M3
Net income$11.4M4$11.9M5$12.8M6$11.9M6$16.4M6
Operating cash flow$21.6M7$16.5M8$14.2M9$22.3M9$21.3M9
Capital expenditure$288,00010$415,00011$627,00012$717,00012$1.35M12
Free cash flow (derived)$21.3M7$16.1M8$13.5M9$21.6M9$19.9M9
Total debt———$013$013
Cash & equivalents—————
Diluted shares3.3M3.4M3.3M3.3M3.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$411.58
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$48.89
Free cash flow it threw off
$59.53
Debt you’d be carrying
$0

10 shares is a claim on $411.58 of net worth that earned you $48.89 and generated $59.53 of cash last year, against $0 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
20% avg · 5y
FY21 1%FY22 3%FY23 19%FY24 37%FY25 37%

It earned about 20% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $36.96 and $136.86 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$136.86
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth7.3%
  • fcfBase$19.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$116.64
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth7.3%
  • fcfBase$19.9M
Earnings Power Value
$36.96
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$11.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$67.29
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years7.3%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $116.64
The three cases
Bear0.0%$85.06
Base7.3%$116.64
Bull12.3%$143.37

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 7.3%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001171843-24-001722 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001171843-25-001868 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-037802 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001171843-24-001722 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001171843-25-001868 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-037802 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001171843-24-001722 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001171843-25-001868 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-037802 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001171843-24-001722 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001171843-25-001868 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-037802 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-037802 (ShortTermBorrowings)