Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund

FBTCdata completeness 63%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'epsDiluted'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund earns about 14% on equity, but has diluted owners by 23140347500% over 3 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue
Net income$01$6.94B1−$1.59B1
Operating cash flow$02−$11.7B2−$127.8M2
Capital expenditure
Free cash flow (derived)
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$03$03$03
Diluted shares1230.7M231.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$762.14
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$68.53
Free cash flow it threw off
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $762.14 of net worth that earned you −$68.53 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
14% avg · 3y
FY23 FY24 37%FY25 -9%

It earned an average 14% on equity over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+23140347500% shares · 3y

Share count is up 23140347500% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071484 (ProfitLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071484 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071484 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)