MeritValue

Forte Biosciences, Inc.

FBRXdata completeness 75%11 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Forte Biosciences, Inc. earns about -72% on equity, and has bought back 7% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income−$21.7M1−$13.9M2−$31.5M3−$35.5M4−$69.4M4
Operating cash flow−$16.7M5−$8.19M6−$28.7M7−$30.7M8−$50.9M8
Capital expenditure——$88,0009$37,00010$116,00010
Free cash flow (derived)——−$28.8M7−$30.8M8−$51M8
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$42M11$41.1M12$37.1M13$22.2M14$77M14
Diluted shares14.0M17.4M1.5M6.4M12.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$47.1
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$53.58
Free cash flow it threw off
−$39.39
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $47.1 of net worth that earned you −$53.58 and generated −$39.39 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-72% avg · 5y
FY21 -52%FY22 -36%FY23 -89%FY24 -68%FY25 -114%

It earned an average -72% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−7% shares · 5y

Share count is down 7% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-011355 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-032843 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-046749 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-134498 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-011355 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-032843 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-046749 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-134498 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-046749 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-134498 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-011355 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-032843 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-046749 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-134498 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)