MeritValue

FIRST BANCORP /PR/

FBPdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

FIRST BANCORP /PR/ earns about 56% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 24% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $19.53 and $38.37 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$851.1M1$918.4M2$929.8M3$938.2M3$1B3
Net income$281M4$305.1M5$302.9M6$298.7M6$344.9M6
Operating cash flow$399.7M7$440.5M8$363M9$404.2M9$448.6M9
Capital expenditure$13.3M10$20.5M11$22.6M12$10M12$11M12
Free cash flow (derived)$386.4M7$420M8$340.4M9$394.1M9$437.5M9
Total debt——$661.7M13$561.7M14$290M14
Cash & equivalents$2.54B15$480.5M16$663.2M16$1.16B16$658.6M16
Diluted shares211.3M192.0M177.2M165.3M160.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$122.36
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$21.46
Free cash flow it threw off
$27.22
Debt you’d be carrying
$18.04

10 shares is a claim on $122.36 of net worth that earned you $21.46 and generated $27.22 of cash last year, against $18.04 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
56% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 42%FY23 32%FY24 85%FY25 67%

It earned about 56% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−24% shares · 5y

Share count is down 24% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 56% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $19.53 and $38.37 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$36.34
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.7%
  • fcfBase$394.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$38.37
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.7%
  • fcfBase$394.1M
Earnings Power Value
$19.53
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$302.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$24.33
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.7%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $38.37
The three cases
Bear0.0%$37.33
Base0.7%$38.37
Bull5.7%$47.06

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.7%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001057706-24-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001057706-25-000002 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001057706-26-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001057706-24-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001057706-25-000002 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001057706-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001057706-24-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001057706-25-000002 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001057706-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001057706-24-000004 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001057706-25-000002 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001057706-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001057706-25-000002 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001057706-26-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001057706-22-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001057706-26-000007 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)