MeritValue

FIRST BANCORP /NC/

FBNCdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

FIRST BANCORP /NC/ earns about 19% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 38% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $26.03 and $113.88 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$25.3M1$17.4M2$32.8M3$70.1M3$67.6M3
Net income$95.6M4$146.9M5$104.1M6$76.2M6$111M6
Operating cash flow$142.3M7$230.7M8$131.4M9$174.8M9$203.1M9
Capital expenditure$9.4M10$5.29M11$4.42M12$2.66M12$4.25M12
Free cash flow (derived)$132.9M7$225.4M8$127M9$172.1M9$198.9M9
Total debt$67.4M13$508.4M14$1.16B15$91.9M16$74.6M16
Cash & equivalents$461.2M17$270.3M18$237.9M18$507.5M18$309.6M18
Diluted shares30.0M35.7M41.2M41.3M41.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$399.04
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$26.79
Free cash flow it threw off
$47.98
Debt you’d be carrying
$17.99

10 shares is a claim on $399.04 of net worth that earned you $26.79 and generated $47.98 of cash last year, against $17.99 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
19% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 13%FY23 9%FY24 32%FY25 30%

It earned about 19% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+38% shares · 5y

Share count is up 38% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 11% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $26.03 and $113.88 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$113.88
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth9.0%
  • fcfBase$172.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$92.84
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth9.0%
  • fcfBase$172.1M
Earnings Power Value
$26.03
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$104.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$49.05
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years9.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $92.84
The three cases
Bear0.0%$65
Base9.0%$92.84
Bull14.0%$112.56

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 9.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000811589-24-000010 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000811589-25-000008 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000811589-26-000051 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000811589-24-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000811589-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000811589-26-000051 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000811589-24-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000811589-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000811589-26-000051 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000811589-24-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000811589-25-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000811589-26-000051 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000811589-23-000011 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000811589-24-000010 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000811589-25-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000811589-26-000051 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000811589-25-000008 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000811589-26-000051 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)