MeritValue

FibroBiologics, Inc.

FBLGdata completeness 75%4 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

FibroBiologics, Inc. earns about -676% on equity, but has diluted owners by 58% over 4 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue————
Net income−$5.12M1−$16.5M2−$11.2M3−$18.6M3
Operating cash flow−$4.07M4−$6.4M5−$11.9M6−$16.4M6
Capital expenditure—$495,0007$184,0008$262,0008
Free cash flow (derived)—−$6.9M5−$12.1M6−$16.7M6
Total debt————
Cash & equivalents$2.27M9$9.16M10$14M11$4.89M11
Diluted shares28.2M28.2M32.9M44.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1.38
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$4.18
Free cash flow it threw off
−$3.73
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $1.38 of net worth that earned you −$4.18 and generated −$3.73 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-676% avg · 4y
FY22 —FY23 -1316%FY24 -408%FY25 -303%

It earned an average -676% on equity over 4 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+58% shares · 4y

Share count is up 58% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-008361 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-001691 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-066965 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-008361 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-001691 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-066965 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-001691 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-066965 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-008361 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-001691 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-066965 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)