MeritValue

FB Financial Corp

FBKdata completeness 100%12 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

FB Financial Corp earns about 45% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $25.38 and $193.95 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$385M1$481.4M2$678.4M3$725.5M3$833.9M3
Net income$190.3M4$124.6M5$120.2M6$116M6$122.6M6
Operating cash flow$54.9M7$799.7M8$211.1M9$138.8M9$155.9M9
Capital expenditure$6.1M10$10.6M11$20.2M12$6.55M12$8.85M12
Free cash flow (derived)$48.8M7$789.1M8$190.8M9$132.3M9$147M9
Total debt$171.8M13$415.7M14$391M15$176.8M16$212.8M16
Cash & equivalents$1.8B17$1.03B18$810.9M19$1.04B20$1.16B20
Diluted shares48.0M47.2M46.8M46.9M50.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$389.09
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$24.49
Free cash flow it threw off
$29.36
Debt you’d be carrying
$42.49

10 shares is a claim on $389.09 of net worth that earned you $24.49 and generated $29.36 of cash last year, against $42.49 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
45% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 25%FY23 33%FY24 63%FY25 58%

It earned about 45% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 24% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $25.38 and $193.95 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$193.95
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$147M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$114.57
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$147M
Earnings Power Value
$25.38
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$122.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$46.31
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $114.57
The three cases
Bear0.0%$60.79
Base20.0%$114.57
Bull20.0%$114.57

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001649749-24-000063 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001649749-25-000035 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001649749-26-000012 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001649749-24-000063 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001649749-25-000035 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001649749-26-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001649749-24-000063 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001649749-25-000035 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001649749-26-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001649749-24-000063 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001649749-25-000035 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001649749-26-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001649749-23-000047 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001649749-24-000063 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001649749-25-000035 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001649749-26-000012 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001649749-23-000047 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001649749-24-000063 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001649749-25-000035 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001649749-26-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)