MeritValue

FIRST BUSINESS FINANCIAL SERVICES, INC.

FBIZdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

FIRST BUSINESS FINANCIAL SERVICES, INC. earns about 54% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $51.9 and $348.96 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$96M1$121.4M2$194.9M3$233.1M3$247.3M3
Net income$35.8M4$40.9M5$37M6$44.2M6$50.3M6
Operating cash flow$36M7$38.6M8$52.3M9$57.5M9$61.7M9
Capital expenditure$391,00010$3.22M11$2.88M12$223,00012$595,00012
Free cash flow (derived)$35.6M7$35.4M8$49.4M9$57.3M9$61.1M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$57.1M13$102.7M14$139.5M15$157.7M16$39.5M16
Diluted shares8.3M8.2M8.1M8.1M8.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$455.47
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$61.68
Free cash flow it threw off
$74.9
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $455.47 of net worth that earned you $61.68 and generated $74.9 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
54% avg · 5y
FY21 25%FY22 37%FY23 68%FY24 89%FY25 49%

It earned about 54% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $51.9 and $348.96 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$348.96
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth17.4%
  • fcfBase$57.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$211.43
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth17.4%
  • fcfBase$57.3M
Earnings Power Value
$51.9
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$40.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$78.02
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years17.4%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $211.43
The three cases
Bear0.0%$105.14
Base17.4%$211.43
Bull20.0%$233.71

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 17.4%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001521951-24-000020 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027715 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071523 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001521951-24-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027715 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071523 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001521951-24-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027715 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071523 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001521951-24-000020 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027715 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071523 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001521951-23-000028 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001521951-24-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027715 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071523 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)