MeritValue

Fortune Brands Innovations, Inc.

FBINdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Fortune Brands Innovations, Inc. earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 13% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $11.91 and $40.35 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$7.66B1$4.72B2$4.63B3$4.61B3$4.46B3
Net income$772.4M4$686.7M4$404.5M5$471.9M5$298.8M5
Operating cash flow$688.7M6$566.3M7$1.06B8$667.8M8$478.6M8
Capital expenditure$214.2M9$246.1M10$256.5M11$193.3M11$111.8M11
Free cash flow (derived)$474.5M6$320.2M7$799.3M8$474.5M8$366.8M8
Total debt$5.82B12$5.95B13$5.34B14$5.85B15$5.09B15
Cash & equivalents$425.6M16$642.5M17$366.4M18$381.1M19$264M19
Diluted shares139.5M131.3M127.7M125.7M121.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$197.08
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$24.65
Free cash flow it threw off
$30.26
Debt you’d be carrying
$419.95

10 shares is a claim on $197.08 of net worth that earned you $24.65 and generated $30.26 of cash last year, against $419.95 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 7%FY22 9%FY23 7%FY24 7%FY25 5%

It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−13% shares · 5y

Share count is down 13% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 13% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $11.91 and $40.35 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$11.91
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$474.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$16.12
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$474.5M
Earnings Power Value
$40.35
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$471.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$33.09
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $16.12
The three cases
Bear0.0%$16.12
Base0.0%$16.12
Bull5.0%$29.66

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-22-002294 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026763 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001193125-26-063960 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005127 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001193125-26-063960 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021148 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026763 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001193125-26-063960 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021148 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026763 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001193125-26-063960 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005127 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021148 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000950170-25-026763 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001193125-26-063960 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005127 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021148 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000950170-25-026763 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001193125-26-063960 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)