MeritValue

FATE THERAPEUTICS INC

FATEdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

FATE THERAPEUTICS INC earns about -51% on equity, but has diluted owners by 25% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$55.8M1$96.3M2$63.5M3$13.6M4$6.65M4
Net income−$212.2M5−$281.7M6−$160.9M7−$186.3M8−$136.3M8
Operating cash flow−$162.9M9−$248.2M10−$132.3M11−$122.9M12−$106.1M12
Capital expenditure$50.7M13$35.6M14$6.15M15$730,00016$5.95M16
Free cash flow (derived)−$213.6M9−$283.8M10−$138.4M11−$123.6M12−$112M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$133.6M17$61.3M18$41.9M19$36.1M20$46.6M20
Diluted shares94.7M96.8M98.4M113.7M118.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$17.44
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$11.48
Free cash flow it threw off
−$9.43
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $17.44 of net worth that earned you −$11.48 and generated −$9.43 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-51% avg · 5y
FY21 -31%FY22 -58%FY23 -44%FY24 -58%FY25 -66%

It earned an average -51% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+25% shares · 5y

Share count is up 25% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005067 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-020158 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-033510 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073699 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005067 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-020158 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-033510 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073699 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005067 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-020158 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-033510 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073699 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005067 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-020158 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-033510 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073699 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005067 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-020158 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-033510 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073699 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)