MeritValue

Fat Brands, Inc

FATAQdata completeness 88%8 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'cash'

The thesis, from the filings

Fat Brands, Inc earns about -9% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 43% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue$18.1M1$118.9M2$407.2M3$480.5M4$592.7M4
Net income−$14.9M5−$31.6M6−$126.2M7−$90.1M8−$189.8M8
Operating cash flow−$11.5M9$682,00010−$47.4M11−$35.6M12−$56.2M12
Capital expenditure$460,00013$10.4M14$21.4M15$18.9M16$22.8M16
Free cash flow (derived)−$11.9M9−$9.74M10−$68.8M11−$54.5M12−$79M12
Total debt$93.2M17$1.81B18$2.02B19$2.31B20$2.52B20
Cash & equivalents—————
Diluted shares11.9M14.7M16.5M16.6M17.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$267.41
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$111.4
Free cash flow it threw off
−$46.38
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,476.62

10 shares is a claim on −$267.41 of net worth that earned you −$111.4 and generated −$46.38 of cash last year, against $1,476.62 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-9% avg · 5y
FY20 -29%FY21 -2%FY22 -5%FY23 -4%FY24 -7%

It earned an average -9% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+43% shares · 5y

Share count is up 43% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 2601% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-27 · accession 0001628280-22-007042 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001628280-23-005078 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0001628280-24-010647 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009125 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-27 · accession 0001628280-22-007042 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001628280-23-005078 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0001628280-24-010647 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009125 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-27 · accession 0001628280-22-007042 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001628280-23-005078 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0001628280-24-010647 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009125 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-27 · accession 0001628280-22-007042 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001628280-23-005078 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0001628280-24-010647 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009125 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-27 · accession 0001628280-22-007042 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001628280-23-005078 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0001628280-24-010647 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009125 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)