MeritValue

FASTENAL CO

FASTdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

FASTENAL CO earns about 30% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 99% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $10.37 and $27.84 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$6.01B1$6.98B2$7.35B3$7.55B3$8.2B3
Net income$925M4$1.09B5$1.16B6$1.15B6$1.26B6
Operating cash flow$770.1M7$941M8$1.43B9$1.17B9$1.3B9
Capital expenditure$156.6M10$173.8M11$172.8M12$226.5M12$245.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$613.5M7$767.2M8$1.26B9$946.8M9$1.05B9
Total debt$780M13$1.11B14$520M15$400M16$250M16
Cash & equivalents$236.2M17$230.1M18$221.3M19$255.8M20$276.8M20
Diluted shares577.1M575.6M1.15B1.15B1.15B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$34.28
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$10.94
Free cash flow it threw off
$9.13
Debt you’d be carrying
$2.17

10 shares is a claim on $34.28 of net worth that earned you $10.94 and generated $9.13 of cash last year, against $2.17 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
30% avg · 5y
FY21 26%FY22 27%FY23 32%FY24 31%FY25 32%

It earned about 30% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+99% shares · 5y

Share count is up 99% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 68% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $10.37 and $27.84 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$27.84
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth11.0%
  • fcfBase$1.05B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$20.89
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth11.0%
  • fcfBase$1.05B
Earnings Power Value
$10.37
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.15B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$9.17
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years11.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $20.89
The three cases
Bear0.0%$13.07
Base11.0%$20.89
Bull16.0%$25.54

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 11.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000815556-24-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000815556-25-000065 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000815556-26-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000815556-24-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000815556-25-000065 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000815556-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000815556-24-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000815556-25-000065 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000815556-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000815556-24-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000815556-25-000065 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000815556-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000815556-23-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000815556-24-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000815556-25-000065 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000815556-26-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000815556-23-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000815556-24-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000815556-25-000065 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000815556-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)