MeritValue

Farmmi, Inc.

FAMIdata completeness 100%10 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Farmmi, Inc. earns about -6% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 252% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $12.55 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$39.3M1$99.2M2$110.4M3$64.1M3$22.6M3
Net income$2.36M4$2.22M5$2.54M6−$4.65M6−$53.1M6
Operating cash flow−$52.9M7$20.6M8−$75.8M9−$16.8M9$52.5M9
Capital expenditure$4,68610$2,94611$31412$29,45012$16,66712
Free cash flow (derived)−$52.9M7$20.6M8−$75.8M9−$16.8M9$52.4M9
Total debt$2.46M13$2.09M14$4.74M15$2.38M16$1.81M16
Cash & equivalents$59.3M17$41.2M17$12.8M18$486,52218$804,09818
Diluted shares522,2762.9M704,406590,6941.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$676.01
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$289.2
Free cash flow it threw off
$285.64
Debt you’d be carrying
$9.86

10 shares is a claim on $676.01 of net worth that earned you −$289.2 and generated $285.64 of cash last year, against $9.86 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-6% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 2%FY23 2%FY24 -2%FY25 -34%

It earned an average -6% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+252% shares · 5y

Share count is up 252% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 26% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$12.55
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.22M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001477932-24-000432 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001477932-25-000434 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001477932-26-000727 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001477932-24-000432 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001477932-25-000434 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001477932-26-000727 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001477932-24-000432 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001477932-25-000434 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001477932-26-000727 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001477932-24-000432 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001477932-25-000434 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001477932-26-000727 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001477932-23-000928 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001477932-24-000432 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001477932-25-000434 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001477932-26-000727 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001477932-23-000928 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001477932-26-000727 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)