MeritValue

FORD MOTOR CO

Fdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

FORD MOTOR CO earns about 21% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $11.32 and $30.07 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$136.3B1$158.1B2$176.2B3$185B3$187.3B3
Net income$17.9B4−$1.98B5$4.35B5$5.88B5−$8.16B6
Operating cash flow$15.8B7$6.85B8$14.9B9$15.4B9$21.3B9
Capital expenditure$6.23B10$6.87B11$8.24B12$8.68B12$8.82B12
Free cash flow (derived)$9.56B7−$13M8$6.68B9$6.74B9$12.5B9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$20.5B13$25.1B14$24.9B15$22.9B16$23.4B16
Diluted shares4.03B4.01B4.04B4.02B3.98B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$90.35
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$20.51
Free cash flow it threw off
$31.33
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $90.35 of net worth that earned you −$20.51 and generated $31.33 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
21% avg · 5y
FY21 80%FY22 7%FY23 65%FY24 27%FY25 -74%

It earned about 21% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $11.32 and $30.07 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$28.25
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$6.74B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$30.07
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$6.74B
Earnings Power Value
$11.32
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$4.35B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $30.07
The three cases
Bear0.0%$30.07
Base0.0%$30.07
Bull5.0%$35.93

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000037996-24-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000037996-25-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000037996-26-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000037996-24-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000037996-25-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0000037996-26-000015 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000037996-24-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000037996-25-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000037996-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000037996-24-000009 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000037996-25-000013 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000037996-26-000015 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000037996-23-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000037996-24-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000037996-25-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000037996-26-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)