MeritValue

EZCORP INC

EZPWdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

EZCORP INC earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 49% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $6.23 and $48.88 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$729.6M1$886.2M2$1.05B3$1.16B3$1.27B3
Net income$8.61M4$50.2M5$38.5M6$83.1M6$109.6M6
Operating cash flow$46.4M7$66.5M8$101.8M9$113.6M9$149M9
Capital expenditure$23.6M10$31.9M11$40.4M12$35.8M12$38.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$22.8M7$34.6M8$61.4M9$77.8M9$110.4M9
Total debt$575.7M13$625.8M14$720.2M15$654.7M16$1.04B16
Cash & equivalents$253.7M17$206M18$220.6M19$170.5M19$469.5M19
Diluted shares55.9M82.4M80.9M84.4M83.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$122.98
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$13.15
Free cash flow it threw off
$13.24
Debt you’d be carrying
$124.26

10 shares is a claim on $122.98 of net worth that earned you $13.15 and generated $13.24 of cash last year, against $124.26 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 5%FY23 4%FY24 6%FY25 7%

It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+49% shares · 5y

Share count is up 49% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 80% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $6.23 and $48.88 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$48.88
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$77.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$23.64
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$77.8M
Earnings Power Value
$6.23
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$50.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$19.82
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $23.64
The three cases
Bear0.0%$6.54
Base20.0%$23.64
Bull20.0%$23.64

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000876523-23-000045 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000876523-24-000048 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000876523-25-000094 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000876523-23-000045 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000876523-24-000048 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000876523-25-000094 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000876523-23-000045 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000876523-24-000048 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000876523-25-000094 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000876523-23-000045 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000876523-24-000048 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000876523-25-000094 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000876523-22-000071 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000876523-23-000045 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000876523-24-000048 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0000876523-25-000094 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000876523-23-000045 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000876523-24-000048 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000876523-25-000094 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)