MeritValue

National Vision Holdings, Inc.

EYEdata completeness 100%11 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

National Vision Holdings, Inc. earns about 2% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 16% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $3.81 and $4.94 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2026
Revenue$2.08B1$1.64B2$1.76B3$1.82B3$1.99B3
Net income$128.2M4$42.1M5−$65.9M6−$28.5M6$29.6M6
Operating cash flow$258.9M7$119.2M8$173M9$133.6M9$146.3M9
Capital expenditure$95.5M10$113.5M11$114.8M12$95.5M12$72.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$163.4M7$5.65M8$58.3M9$38.1M9$73.5M9
Total debt$1.09B13$1.09B14$890.4M15$674.3M16$473M16
Cash & equivalents$305.8M17$229.4M18$149.9M19$73.9M19$38.7M19
Diluted shares96.1M80.3M78.6M78.6M80.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$107.91
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.67
Free cash flow it threw off
$9.12
Debt you’d be carrying
$58.7

10 shares is a claim on $107.91 of net worth that earned you $3.67 and generated $9.12 of cash last year, against $58.7 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY22 9%FY22 2%FY23 0%FY24 -1%FY26 2%

It earned about 2% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−16% shares · 5y

Share count is down 16% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 56% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $3.81 and $4.94 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$4.16
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$58.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$4.94
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$58.3M
Earnings Power Value
$3.81
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$29.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$9.48
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $4.94
The three cases
Bear0.0%$4.94
Base0.0%$4.94
Bull5.0%$7.44

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001710155-24-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001710155-25-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001628280-26-014379 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001710155-24-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001710155-25-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001628280-26-014379 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001710155-24-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001710155-25-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001628280-26-014379 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001710155-24-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001710155-25-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001628280-26-014379 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001710155-23-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001710155-24-000018 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001710155-25-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001628280-26-014379 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001710155-24-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001710155-25-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001628280-26-014379 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)