MeritValue

EXTREME NETWORKS INC

EXTRdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

EXTREME NETWORKS INC earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.15 and $16.39 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.01B1$1.11B2$1.31B3$1.12B3$1.14B3
Net income$1.94M4$44.3M5$78.1M6−$86M6−$7.47M6
Operating cash flow$144.5M7$128.2M8$249.2M9$55.5M9$152M9
Capital expenditure$17.2M10$15.4M11$13.8M12$18.1M12$24.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$127.4M7$112.7M8$235.4M9$37.4M9$127.3M9
Total debt$686.3M13$612.5M14$446.9M15$377.6M16$358M16
Cash & equivalents—$194.5M17$234.8M18$156.7M19$231.7M19
Diluted shares127.7M133.5M133.6M129.3M132.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$4.96
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.56
Free cash flow it threw off
$9.62
Debt you’d be carrying
$27.05

10 shares is a claim on $4.96 of net worth that earned you −$0.56 and generated $9.62 of cash last year, against $27.05 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 11%FY23 28%FY24 -19%FY25 5%

It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 48% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.15 and $16.39 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$16.39
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth4.1%
  • fcfBase$127.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$15.5
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth4.1%
  • fcfBase$127.3M
Earnings Power Value
$0.15
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.94M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years4.1%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $15.5
The three cases
Bear0.0%$12.79
Base4.1%$15.5
Bull9.1%$19.36

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 4.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000950170-23-044385 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-098129 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000950170-25-109742 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000950170-23-044385 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-098129 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000950170-25-109742 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000950170-23-044385 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-098129 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000950170-25-109742 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000950170-23-044385 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-098129 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000950170-25-109742 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001564590-22-030248 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-23-044385 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-098129 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000950170-25-109742 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-23-044385 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-098129 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000950170-25-109742 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)