MeritValue

Extra Space Storage Inc.

EXRdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Extra Space Storage Inc. earns about 18% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 51% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $41.81 and $94.29 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$66.3M1$83.9M2$102M3$120.9M3$129.5M3
Net income$827.6M4$860.7M5$803.2M6$854.7M6$974M6
Operating cash flow$952.4M7$1.24B8$1.4B9$1.89B9$1.85B9
Capital expenditure—$1.19B10$135.6M11$479.1M12$561.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)—$44.9M8$1.27B9$1.41B9$1.29B9
Total debt———$500M13—
Cash & equivalents$71.1M14$92.9M15$99.1M15$138.2M15$138.9M15
Diluted shares140.0M141.7M169.2M211.6M211.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$634.09
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$45.98
Free cash flow it threw off
$60.82
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $634.09 of net worth that earned you $45.98 and generated $60.82 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
18% avg · 5y
FY21 33%FY22 35%FY23 8%FY24 6%FY25 7%

It earned about 18% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+51% shares · 5y

Share count is up 51% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $41.81 and $94.29 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$91.95
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth1.7%
  • fcfBase$1.29B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$94.29
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth1.7%
  • fcfBase$1.29B
Earnings Power Value
$41.81
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$854.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$80.92
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years1.7%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $94.29
The three cases
Bear0.0%$87.55
Base1.7%$94.29
Bull6.7%$116.66

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 1.7%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-008044 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009060 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001289490-26-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-008044 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009060 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001289490-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-008044 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009060 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001289490-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-008044 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009060 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001289490-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009060 (CommercialPaper)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009060 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001289490-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)