MeritValue

EXPONENT INC

EXPOdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

EXPONENT INC earns about 68% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 4% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $20.69 and $60.12 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$466.3M1$513.3M2$536.8M3$558.5M3$582M3
Net income$101.2M4$102.3M5$100.3M6$109M6$106M6
Operating cash flow$124.6M7$93.8M8$127.4M9$144.5M9$131.7M9
Capital expenditure$6.83M10$12M11$16.4M12$6.94M12$9.39M12
Free cash flow (derived)$117.7M7$81.8M8$111M9$137.6M9$122.3M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$297.7M13$161.5M14$187.2M15$258.9M16$221.9M16
Diluted shares53.3M52.3M51.6M51.6M51.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$76.17
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$20.69
Free cash flow it threw off
$23.87
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $76.17 of net worth that earned you $20.69 and generated $23.87 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
68% avg · 5y
FY21 85%FY22 64%FY23 59%FY25 67%FY26 63%

It earned about 68% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−4% shares · 5y

Share count is down 4% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $20.69 and $60.12 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$60.12
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth7.6%
  • fcfBase$122.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$51.53
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth7.6%
  • fcfBase$122.3M
Earnings Power Value
$20.69
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$102.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$18.84
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years7.6%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $51.53
The three cases
Bear0.0%$38.44
Base7.6%$51.53
Bull12.6%$62.33

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 7.6%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019390 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0000950170-25-030001 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0001193125-26-082508 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019390 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0000950170-25-030001 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0001193125-26-082508 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019390 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0000950170-25-030001 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0001193125-26-082508 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019390 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0000950170-25-030001 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0001193125-26-082508 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004401 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0000950170-24-019390 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0000950170-25-030001 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-01-03 · accession 0001193125-26-082508 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)