MeritValue

Expedia Group, Inc.

EXPEdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Expedia Group, Inc. earns about 9% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 12% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $62.6 and $199.84 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$8.6B1$11.7B2$12.8B3$13.7B3$14.7B3
Net income$12M4$352M5$797M6$1.23B6$1.29B6
Operating cash flow$3.75B7$3.44B8$2.69B9$3.09B9$3.88B9
Capital expenditure$673M10$662M11$846M12$756M12$770M12
Free cash flow (derived)$3.08B7$2.78B8$1.84B9$2.33B9$3.11B9
Total debt$16.9B13$12.5B14$12.5B15$12.5B16$12.3B16
Cash & equivalents$4.11B17$4.1B18$4.23B19$4.18B20$5.41B20
Diluted shares149.7M161.8M150.2M137.9M131.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$97.31
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$98.07
Free cash flow it threw off
$235.71
Debt you’d be carrying
$933.89

10 shares is a claim on $97.31 of net worth that earned you $98.07 and generated $235.71 of cash last year, against $933.89 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 5%FY23 9%FY24 12%FY25 16%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−12% shares · 5y

Share count is down 12% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 27% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $62.6 and $199.84 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$180.85
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$2.33B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$199.84
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$2.33B
Earnings Power Value
$62.6
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$797M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$46.35
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $199.84
The three cases
Bear0.0%$199.84
Base0.0%$199.84
Bull5.0%$260.88

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001324424-24-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001324424-25-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001324424-26-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001324424-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001324424-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001324424-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001324424-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001324424-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001324424-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001324424-24-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001324424-25-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001324424-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001324424-23-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001324424-24-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001324424-25-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001324424-26-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001324424-23-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001324424-24-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001324424-25-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001324424-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)