MeritValue

EXPEDITORS INTERNATIONAL OF WASHINGTON INC

EXPDdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

EXPEDITORS INTERNATIONAL OF WASHINGTON INC earns about 90% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 20% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $61.63 and $140.68 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$16.5B1$17.1B2$9.3B3$10.6B3$11.1B3
Net income$1.42B4$1.36B5$752.9M6$810.1M6$810.3M6
Operating cash flow$868.5M7$2.13B8$1.05B9$723.4M9$1.01B9
Capital expenditure$36.2M10$86.8M11$39.3M12$40.5M12$53.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)$832.2M7$2.04B8$1.01B9$682.9M9$953.4M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$1.73B13$2.03B14$1.51B15$1.15B16$1.31B16
Diluted shares171.3M164.4M150.2M141.7M136.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$172.89
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$59.47
Free cash flow it threw off
$69.97
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $172.89 of net worth that earned you $59.47 and generated $69.97 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
90% avg · 5y
FY21 80%FY22 128%FY23 86%FY24 76%FY25 78%

It earned about 90% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−20% shares · 5y

Share count is down 20% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $61.63 and $140.68 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$140.68
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth4.6%
  • fcfBase$953.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$131.9
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth4.6%
  • fcfBase$953.4M
Earnings Power Value
$61.63
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$810.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$48.11
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years4.6%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $131.9
The three cases
Bear0.0%$109.62
Base4.6%$131.9
Bull9.6%$160.49

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 4.6%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019394 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024750 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071569 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019394 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024750 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071569 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019394 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024750 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071569 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019394 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024750 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071569 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005412 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019394 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024750 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071569 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)