MeritValue

EAGLE MATERIALS INC

EXPdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

EAGLE MATERIALS INC earns about 12% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 21% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $44.23 and $148.56 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$1.86B1$2.15B2$2.26B3$2.26B3$2.31B3
Net income$374.2M4$461.5M5$477.6M6$463.4M6$423.8M6
Operating cash flow$517.2M7$541.7M8$563.9M9$548.5M9$614.2M9
Capital expenditure$74.1M10$110.1M11$120.3M12$195.3M12$416.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$443.1M7$431.6M8$443.6M9$353.3M9$197.4M9
Total debt$2.04B13$2.19B14$2.2B15$2.48B16$3.54B16
Cash & equivalents$19.4M17$15.2M18$34.9M19$20.4M20$297.9M20
Diluted shares40.9M37.1M35.1M33.6M32.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$458.11
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$131.64
Free cash flow it threw off
$61.32
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,100

10 shares is a claim on $458.11 of net worth that earned you $131.64 and generated $61.32 of cash last year, against $1,100 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
12% avg · 5y
FY22 —FY23 —FY24 15%FY25 13%FY26 10%

It earned about 12% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−21% shares · 5y

Share count is down 21% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 73% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $44.23 and $148.56 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$44.23
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$353.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$56.04
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$353.3M
Earnings Power Value
$148.56
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$461.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$116.47
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $56.04
The three cases
Bear0.0%$56.04
Base0.0%$56.04
Bull5.0%$93.98

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0000950170-24-063523 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000950170-25-075321 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001193125-26-230979 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0000950170-24-063523 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000950170-25-075321 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001193125-26-230979 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0000950170-24-063523 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000950170-25-075321 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001193125-26-230979 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0000950170-24-063523 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000950170-25-075321 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001193125-26-230979 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0000950170-23-023282 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000950170-24-063523 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000950170-25-075321 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0001193125-26-230979 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0000950170-23-023282 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000950170-24-063523 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000950170-25-075321 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0001193125-26-230979 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)