MeritValue

ExlService Holdings, Inc.

EXLSdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ExlService Holdings, Inc. earns about 16% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $11.77 and $52.28 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.12B1$1.41B2$1.63B3$1.84B3$2.09B3
Net income$114.8M4$143M5$184.6M6$198.3M6$251M6
Operating cash flow$184.4M7$166.1M8$211.2M9$268.5M9$350.7M9
Capital expenditure$37.2M10$44.8M11$52.8M12$46.3M12$52.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$147.1M7$121.3M8$158.4M9$222.3M9$298.1M9
Total debt$520M13$250M14$400M15$577M16$597.2M16
Cash & equivalents$135.3M17$118.7M18$137M19$153.4M19$146.3M19
Diluted shares171.2M169.2M168.2M164.3M162.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$56.17
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$15.45
Free cash flow it threw off
$18.35
Debt you’d be carrying
$36.75

10 shares is a claim on $56.17 of net worth that earned you $15.45 and generated $18.35 of cash last year, against $36.75 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
16% avg · 5y
FY21 11%FY22 17%FY23 17%FY24 15%FY25 18%

It earned about 16% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 15% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $11.77 and $52.28 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$52.28
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth14.7%
  • fcfBase$222.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$33.51
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth14.7%
  • fcfBase$222.3M
Earnings Power Value
$11.77
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$184.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$13.95
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years14.7%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $33.51
The three cases
Bear0.0%$16.77
Base14.7%$33.51
Bull19.7%$41.38

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 14.7%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001297989-24-000003 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001297989-25-000002 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001297989-26-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001297989-24-000003 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001297989-25-000002 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001297989-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001297989-24-000003 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001297989-25-000002 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001297989-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001297989-24-000003 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001297989-25-000002 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001297989-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001297989-22-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001297989-24-000003 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001297989-25-000002 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001297989-26-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001297989-24-000003 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001297989-25-000002 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001297989-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)