MeritValue

Expensify, Inc.

EXFYdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Expensify, Inc. earns about -20% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 143% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $7.77 and $13.66 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$142.8M1$169.5M2$150.7M2$139.2M3$142.1M3
Net income−$13.6M4−$27M5−$41.5M5−$10.1M6−$21.4M6
Operating cash flow$5.49M7$32.9M8$1.56M8$23.9M9$20.1M9
Capital expenditure$2.71M10$585,00011$1.38M11$012$17,00012
Free cash flow (derived)$2.78M7$32.3M8$175,0008$23.9M9$20.1M9
Total debt$120.2M13$52M14$7.66M14$015—
Cash & equivalents$98.4M16$103.8M17$47.5M17$48.8M18$63.1M18
Diluted shares38.0M80.8M82.5M87.4M92.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$14.38
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$2.32
Free cash flow it threw off
$2.18
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $14.38 of net worth that earned you −$2.32 and generated $2.18 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-20% avg · 5y
FY21 -9%FY22 -28%FY23 -43%FY24 -2%FY25 -18%

It earned about -20% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+143% shares · 5y

Share count is up 143% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $7.77 and $13.66 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$13.66
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$20.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$7.77
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$20.1M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $7.77
The three cases
Bear0.0%$3.79
Base20.0%$7.77
Bull20.0%$7.77

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001476840-24-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001476840-25-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001476840-26-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001476840-24-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001476840-25-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001476840-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001476840-24-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001476840-25-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001476840-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001476840-24-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001476840-25-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001476840-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001476840-23-000032 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001476840-24-000016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001476840-25-000018 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001476840-24-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001476840-25-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001476840-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)