MeritValue

EXELIXIS, INC.

EXELdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

EXELIXIS, INC. earns about 17% on equity, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 13% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $8.5 and $143.81 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$1.43B1$1.61B2$1.83B3$2.17B3$2.32B3
Net income$231.1M4$182.3M5$207.8M6$521.3M6$782.6M6
Operating cash flow$400.8M7$362.6M8$333.3M9$700M9$884.3M9
Capital expenditure$54.2M10$27.7M11$40.5M12$28.4M12$8.43M12
Free cash flow (derived)$346.6M7$334.9M8$292.9M9$671.5M9$875.8M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$647.2M13$501.2M14$263M15$217.4M16$482.5M16
Diluted shares322.4M324.6M321.5M296.1M281.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$76.68
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$27.76
Free cash flow it threw off
$31.07
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $76.68 of net worth that earned you $27.76 and generated $31.07 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
17% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 7%FY23 9%FY25 23%FY26 36%

It earned about 17% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−13% shares · 5y

Share count is down 13% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $8.5 and $143.81 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$143.81
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$671.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$79.39
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$671.5M
Earnings Power Value
$8.5
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$231.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$21.9
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $79.39
The three cases
Bear0.0%$35.75
Base20.0%$79.39
Bull20.0%$79.39

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000939767-24-000028 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0000939767-25-000019 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0000939767-26-000021 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000939767-24-000028 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0000939767-25-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0000939767-26-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000939767-24-000028 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0000939767-25-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0000939767-26-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000939767-24-000028 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0000939767-25-000019 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0000939767-26-000021 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000939767-23-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0000939767-24-000028 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0000939767-25-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-01-03 · accession 0000939767-26-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)