MeritValue

EXPAND ENERGY Corp

EXEdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

EXPAND ENERGY Corp earns about 12% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 2360% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $78.42 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.75B1$11.7B2$8.72B3$4.24B3$12.1B3
Net income−$9.73B4$4.94B5$2.42B6−$714M6$1.82B6
Operating cash flow$1.16B7$4.13B8$2.38B9$1.57B9$4.58B9
Capital expenditure$1.14B10$1.82B11$1.83B12$1.56B12$2.74B12
Free cash flow (derived)$22M7$2.3B8$551M9$8M9$1.84B9
Total debt$3.86B13$6.09B14$4.06B15$11.4B16$10B16
Cash & equivalents$279M17$130M18$1.08B19$317M19$616M19
Diluted shares9.8M146.0M143.0M157.0M240.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$772.89
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$75.68
Free cash flow it threw off
$76.51
Debt you’d be carrying
$416.77

10 shares is a claim on $772.89 of net worth that earned you $75.68 and generated $76.51 of cash last year, against $416.77 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
12% avg · 5y
FY20 —FY22 25%FY23 18%FY24 -2%FY25 7%

It earned an average 12% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2360% shares · 5y

Share count is up 2360% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 160% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$551M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$551M
Earnings Power Value
$78.42
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.82B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$114.74
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0000895126-21-000078 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000895126-25-000021 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000895126-26-000011 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0000895126-23-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000895126-25-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000895126-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0000895126-23-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000895126-25-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000895126-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0000895126-23-000022 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000895126-25-000021 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000895126-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0000895126-22-000029 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000895126-24-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000895126-25-000021 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000895126-26-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0000895126-23-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000895126-25-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000895126-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)