MeritValue

EXELON CORP

EXCdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

EXELON CORP earns about 3% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 3% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $23.84 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$17.9B1$19.1B2$21.7B3$23B3$24.3B3
Net income$1.83B4$2.17B5$2.33B6$2.46B6$2.77B6
Operating cash flow$3.01B7$4.87B8$4.7B9$5.57B9$6.25B9
Capital expenditure$7.98B10$7.15B11$7.41B12$7.1B12$8.53B12
Free cash flow (derived)−$4.97B7−$2.28B8−$2.71B9−$1.53B9−$2.28B9
Total debt$72.9B13$76.8B13$45.2B14$48B15$51.7B15
Cash & equivalents$672M16$407M17$445M17$357M17$626M17
Diluted shares980.0M987.0M997.0M1.00B1.01B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$284.57
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$27.35
Free cash flow it threw off
−$22.48
Debt you’d be carrying
$510.92

10 shares is a claim on $284.57 of net worth that earned you $27.35 and generated −$22.48 of cash last year, against $510.92 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 2%FY23 3%FY24 3%FY25 3%

It earned an average 3% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+3% shares · 5y

Share count is up 3% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 29% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$23.84
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.33B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001109357-24-000053 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001109357-25-000043 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001109357-26-000018 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001109357-24-000053 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001109357-25-000043 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001109357-26-000018 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001109357-24-000053 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001109357-25-000043 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001109357-26-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001109357-24-000053 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001109357-25-000043 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001109357-26-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001109357-23-000018 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001109357-25-000043 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001109357-26-000018 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001109357-25-000043 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001109357-26-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)