MeritValue

Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc.

EVLVdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. earns about -89% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 135% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$23.4M1$52.7M2$79.6M2$103.9M3$145.9M3
Net income−$10.9M4−$86.8M5−$108M5−$54M6−$33.1M6
Operating cash flow−$56.8M7−$74.7M8−$9.8M8−$30.9M9$18.7M9
Capital expenditure$3.71M10————
Free cash flow (derived)−$60.5M7————
Total debt$19.9M11$59.4M12$013$014$57.2M14
Cash & equivalents$307.5M15$229.8M16$67.2M16$37M17$49.2M17
Diluted shares71.7M143.9M149.2M156.6M168.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$7.09
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.97
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$3.4

10 shares is a claim on $7.09 of net worth that earned you −$1.97 last year, against $3.4 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-89% avg · 5y
FY21 -143%FY22 -121%FY23 -110%FY24 -53%FY25 -20%

It earned an average -89% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+135% shares · 5y

Share count is up 135% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 188% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-009178 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-020355 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001805385-26-000012 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-009178 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-020355 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001805385-26-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-009178 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-020355 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001805385-26-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-22-004491 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-009178 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-020355 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-008053 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001805385-26-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-009178 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-020355 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001805385-26-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)