MeritValue

Evolent Health, Inc.

EVHdata completeness 88%13 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Evolent Health, Inc. earns about -10% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 33% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$908M1$1.35B2$1.96B3$2.55B3$1.88B3
Net income−$37.6M4−$19.2M5−$113M6−$61.6M6−$534.5M6
Operating cash flow$38.7M7−$11.6M8$142.6M9$18.8M9$38.8M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$215.7M10$413M11$597M12$662M13$970.5M13
Cash & equivalents$266.3M14$188.2M15$192.8M16$104.2M17$151.9M17
Diluted shares86.1M93.7M111.3M114.7M114.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$36.35
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$46.8
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$84.98

10 shares is a claim on $36.35 of net worth that earned you −$46.8 last year, against $84.98 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-10% avg · 5y
FY21 -1%FY22 -3%FY23 -8%FY24 -3%FY25 -34%

It earned an average -10% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+33% shares · 5y

Share count is up 33% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 350% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628908-24-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628908-25-000020 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628908-26-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628908-24-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628908-25-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628908-26-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628908-24-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628908-25-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628908-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628908-23-000029 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628908-24-000017 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628908-25-000020 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628908-26-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628908-23-000029 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628908-24-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628908-25-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628908-26-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)