EverQuote, Inc.

EVERdata completeness 88%9 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

EverQuote, Inc. earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 129689% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $58.47 and $103.2 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$418.5M1$404.1M2$287.9M3$500.2M3$692.5M3
Net income−$19.4M4−$24.4M5−$51.3M6$32.2M6$99.3M6
Operating cash flow$7.19M7−$15.8M8−$2.83M9$66.6M9$95.4M9
Capital expenditure$2.86M10$4.29M11$3.84M12$4.11M12$5.06M12
Free cash flow (derived)$4.33M7−$20.1M8−$6.67M9$62.5M9$90.3M9
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$34.9M13$30.8M13$38M14$102.1M15$171.4M15
Diluted shares29,08831,61333.4M36.6M37.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$63.05
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$26.31
Free cash flow it threw off
$23.92
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $63.05 of net worth that earned you $26.31 and generated $23.92 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 -34%FY22 -25%FY23 -93%FY24 97%FY25 93%

It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+129689% shares · 5y

Share count is up 129689% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $58.47 and $103.2 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$103.2
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$62.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$58.47
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$62.5M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$19.32
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $58.47
The three cases
Bear0.0%$28.17
Base20.0%$58.47
Bull20.0%$58.47

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021082 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026724 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-066957 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021082 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026724 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-066957 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021082 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026724 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-066957 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021082 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026724 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-066957 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021082 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026724 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-066957 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)