MeritValue

EverCommerce Inc.

EVCMdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

EverCommerce Inc. earns about -2% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 56% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $14.38 and $30.44 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$490.1M1$620.7M2$534.9M3$562.2M3$588.9M3
Net income−$82M4−$59.8M5−$45.6M6−$41.1M6$17.6M6
Operating cash flow$37.5M7$64.8M8$104.6M9$113.2M9$111.5M9
Capital expenditure$3.1M10$2.57M11$3.04M12$1.46M12$2.23M12
Free cash flow (derived)$34.4M7$62.2M8$101.6M9$111.7M9$109.2M9
Total debt$1.09B13$1.07B14$1.06B15$1.06B16$1.05B16
Cash & equivalents$94M17$92.6M18$92.6M19$135.8M20$129.7M20
Diluted shares117.8M194.6M188.9M184.9M183.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$38.98
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.96
Free cash flow it threw off
$5.94
Debt you’d be carrying
$56.92

10 shares is a claim on $38.98 of net worth that earned you $0.96 and generated $5.94 of cash last year, against $56.92 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-2% avg · 5y
FY21 -4%FY22 -3%FY23 -2%FY24 -0%FY25 1%

It earned about -2% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+56% shares · 5y

Share count is up 56% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $14.38 and $30.44 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$30.44
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$109.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$14.38
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$109.2M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$2.96
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $14.38
The three cases
Bear0.0%$3.5
Base20.0%$14.38
Bull20.0%$14.38

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001853145-24-000026 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001853145-25-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001853145-26-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001853145-24-000026 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001853145-25-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001853145-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001853145-24-000026 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001853145-25-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001853145-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001853145-24-000026 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001853145-25-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001853145-26-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001853145-23-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001853145-24-000026 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001853145-25-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001853145-26-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001853145-23-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001853145-24-000026 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001853145-25-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001853145-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)