eToro Group Ltd.

ETORdata completeness 88%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

eToro Group Ltd. earns about 3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 13% over 3 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $23.87 and $74.22 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.89B1$12.6B1$13.8B1
Net income$15.3M2$192.4M2$215.7M2
Operating cash flow$111.8M3$268.6M3$318.2M3
Capital expenditure$425,0004$2.37M4$4.84M4
Free cash flow (derived)$111.4M3$266.2M3$313.4M3
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$388.3M5$575.4M5$1.07B5
Diluted shares73.7M75.6M83.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1,922.75
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$25.83
Free cash flow it threw off
$37.53
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $1,922.75 of net worth that earned you $25.83 and generated $37.53 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 3y
FY23 7%FY24 1%FY25 1%

It earned about 3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+13% shares · 3y

Share count is up 13% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $23.87 and $74.22 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$74.22
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$266.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$69.42
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$266.2M
Earnings Power Value
$23.87
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$192.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$99.1
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $69.42
The three cases
Bear0.0%$58.39
Base5.0%$69.42
Bull10.0%$82.61

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-022034 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-022034 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-022034 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-022034 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-022034 (CashAndCashEquivalents)