eToro Group Ltd.
ETORdata completeness 88%3 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'
eToro Group Ltd. earns about 3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 13% over 3 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $23.87 and $74.22 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.89B1 | $12.6B1 | $13.8B1 |
| Net income | $15.3M2 | $192.4M2 | $215.7M2 |
| Operating cash flow | $111.8M3 | $268.6M3 | $318.2M3 |
| Capital expenditure | $425,0004 | $2.37M4 | $4.84M4 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $111.4M3 | $266.2M3 | $313.4M3 |
| Total debt | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $388.3M5 | $575.4M5 | $1.07B5 |
| Diluted shares | 73.7M | 75.6M | 83.5M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $1,922.75 of net worth that earned you $25.83 and generated $37.53 of cash last year.
It earned about 3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 13% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $23.87 and $74.22 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$266.2M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$266.2M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$192.4M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $58.39 |
| Base | 5.0% | $69.42 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $82.61 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-022034 (Revenue)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-022034 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-022034 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-022034 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-022034 (CashAndCashEquivalents)