MeritValue

Eaton Corp plc

ETNdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Eaton Corp plc earns about 12% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $85.24 and $512.79 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$19.6B1$20.8B2$23.2B3$24.9B3$27.4B3
Net income$2.14B4$2.46B5$3.22B6$3.79B6$4.09B6
Operating cash flow$2.16B7$2.53B8$3.62B9$4.33B9$4.47B9
Capital expenditure$575M10$598M11$757M12$808M12$919M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.59B7$1.94B8$2.87B9$3.52B9$3.55B9
Total debt$8.58B13$8.66B14$9.27B15$9.15B16$9.9B16
Cash & equivalents$297M17$294M18$488M19$555M20$622M20
Diluted shares401.6M400.8M401.1M399.4M391.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$496.55
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$104.47
Free cash flow it threw off
$90.82
Debt you’d be carrying
$252.94

10 shares is a claim on $496.55 of net worth that earned you $104.47 and generated $90.82 of cash last year, against $252.94 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
12% avg · 5y
FY21 9%FY22 9%FY23 11%FY24 14%FY25 14%

It earned about 12% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 15% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $85.24 and $512.79 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$512.79
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$3.52B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$269.58
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$3.52B
Earnings Power Value
$85.24
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$3.22B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$108.05
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $269.58
The three cases
Bear0.0%$104.82
Base20.0%$269.58
Bull20.0%$269.58

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001551182-24-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001551182-25-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001551182-26-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001551182-24-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001551182-25-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001551182-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001551182-24-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001551182-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001551182-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001551182-24-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001551182-25-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001551182-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001551182-23-000004 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001551182-24-000006 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001551182-25-000006 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001551182-26-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001551182-23-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001551182-24-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001551182-25-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001551182-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)