Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.
ESRTdata completeness 88%15 fiscal years on fileEmpire State Realty Trust, Inc. earns about 17% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $2.8 and $3.84 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $624.1M1 | $725.7M2 | $738.2M3 | $766.8M3 | $766.8M3 |
| Net income | −$13M4 | $63.2M5 | $84.4M6 | $80.4M6 | $73M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $212.5M7 | $211.2M8 | $232.5M9 | $260.9M9 | $249.1M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $398.4M10 | $86M10 | $169.2M10 | $172.9M11 | $198.5M11 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$185.9M7 | $125.2M8 | $63.3M9 | $88M9 | $50.6M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $423.7M12 | $264.4M13 | $346.6M13 | $385.5M13 | $132.7M13 |
| Diluted shares | 277.4M | 269.9M | 265.6M | 269.0M | 270.0M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $39.25 of net worth that earned you $2.7 and generated $1.87 of cash last year.
It earned about 17% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $2.8 and $3.84 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$63.3M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$63.3M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$73M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $3.84 |
| Base | 0.0% | $3.84 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $4.65 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001541401-24-000033 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001541401-25-000003 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001541401-26-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001541401-24-000033 (ProfitLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001541401-25-000003 (ProfitLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001541401-26-000008 (ProfitLoss)
- 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001541401-24-000033 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001541401-25-000003 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001541401-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001541401-24-000033 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001541401-26-000008 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001541401-25-000003 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001541401-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)