MeritValue

Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.

ESRTdata completeness 88%15 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. earns about 17% on invested capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $9.35 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$624.1M1$725.7M2$738.2M3$766.8M3$766.8M3
Net income−$13M4$63.2M5$84.4M6$80.4M6$73M6
Operating cash flow$212.5M7$211.2M8$232.5M9$260.9M9$249.1M9
Capital expenditure$398.4M10$86M10$169.2M10$172.9M11$198.5M11
Free cash flow (derived)−$185.9M7$125.2M8$63.3M9$88M9$50.6M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$423.7M12$264.4M13$346.6M13$385.5M13$132.7M13
Diluted shares277.4M269.9M265.6M269.0M270.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$39.25
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$2.7
Free cash flow it threw off
$1.87
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $39.25 of net worth that earned you $2.7 and generated $1.87 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
17% avg · 5y
FY21 11%FY22 23%FY23 29%FY24 12%FY25 8%

It earned an average 17% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
REIT — real-estate depreciation is an accounting charge on assets that generally appreciate, so it inflates free cash flow and depresses reported earnings and book value at the same time. Every model here reads one of those, and none is a fair base. FFO/AFFO is the applicable measure — see the FFO capitalisation model, which values REITs from it.
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
REIT — real-estate depreciation is an accounting charge on assets that generally appreciate, so it inflates free cash flow and depresses reported earnings and book value at the same time. Every model here reads one of those, and none is a fair base. FFO/AFFO is the applicable measure — see the FFO capitalisation model, which values REITs from it.
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
REIT — real-estate depreciation is an accounting charge on assets that generally appreciate, so it inflates free cash flow and depresses reported earnings and book value at the same time. Every model here reads one of those, and none is a fair base. FFO/AFFO is the applicable measure — see the FFO capitalisation model, which values REITs from it.
FFO · Capitalized
$9.35
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedFfo$247.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
REIT — real-estate depreciation is an accounting charge on assets that generally appreciate, so it inflates free cash flow and depresses reported earnings and book value at the same time. Every model here reads one of those, and none is a fair base. FFO/AFFO is the applicable measure — see the FFO capitalisation model, which values REITs from it.

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001541401-24-000033 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001541401-25-000003 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001541401-26-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001541401-24-000033 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001541401-25-000003 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001541401-26-000008 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001541401-24-000033 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001541401-25-000003 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001541401-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001541401-24-000033 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001541401-26-000008 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001541401-25-000003 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001541401-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)