MeritValue

ESPEY MFG & ELECTRONICS CORP

ESPdata completeness 88%15 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

ESPEY MFG & ELECTRONICS CORP earns about 11% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 12% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $14.13 and $127.13 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$27.7M1$32.1M2$35.6M3$1.19M4$3.67M5
Net income−$181,5436$1.27M7$3.68M8$5.82M9$8.14M9
Operating cash flow$594,99610$2.22M11$3.9M12$10.6M13$21M13
Capital expenditure$43,55414$303,56115$512,01616$5.16M17$4.37M17
Free cash flow (derived)$551,44210$1.92M11$3.39M12$5.43M13$16.6M13
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$6.8M18$8.1M19$2.75M20$4.35M21$18.9M21
Diluted shares2.4M2.4M2.5M2.5M2.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$188.6
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$30.2
Free cash flow it threw off
$61.66
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $188.6 of net worth that earned you $30.2 and generated $61.66 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY21 -1%FY22 5%FY23 11%FY24 16%FY25 25%

It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+12% shares · 5y

Share count is up 12% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $14.13 and $127.13 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$127.13
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$5.43M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$72.67
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$5.43M
Earnings Power Value
$14.13
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$3.68M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$35.8
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $72.67
The three cases
Bear0.0%$35.78
Base20.0%$72.67
Bull20.0%$72.67

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001174947-22-001033 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001174947-23-001137 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001174947-24-001099 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001174947-24-001099 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0001174947-25-001227 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001174947-22-001033 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001174947-23-001137 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001174947-24-001099 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001174947-25-001227 (NetIncomeLoss)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001174947-22-001033 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001174947-23-001137 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001174947-24-001099 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001174947-25-001227 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001174947-22-001033 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001174947-23-001137 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001174947-24-001099 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001174947-25-001227 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001174947-22-001033 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001174947-23-001137 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001174947-24-001099 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001174947-25-001227 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)