MeritValue

Essent Group Ltd.

ESNTdata completeness 88%14 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Essent Group Ltd. earns about 15% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 10% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $72.15 and $181.35 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.03B1$1B2$1.11B3$1.24B3$1.26B3
Net income$681.8M4$831.4M5$696.4M6$729.4M6$690M6
Operating cash flow$709.3M7$588.8M8$763M9$861.5M9$856.1M9
Capital expenditure$2.5M10$3.98M11$4M12$6.77M12$7.36M12
Free cash flow (derived)$706.8M7$584.8M8$759M9$854.8M9$848.7M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$81.5M13$81.2M14$141.8M14$131.5M14$123M14
Diluted shares111.6M107.7M107.1M106.5M100.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$575.54
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$68.98
Free cash flow it threw off
$84.85
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $575.54 of net worth that earned you $68.98 and generated $84.85 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
15% avg · 5y
FY21 17%FY22 19%FY23 15%FY24 13%FY25 12%

It earned about 15% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−10% shares · 5y

Share count is down 10% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $72.15 and $181.35 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$181.35
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth6.3%
  • fcfBase$848.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$160.28
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth6.3%
  • fcfBase$848.7M
Earnings Power Value
$72.15
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$696.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$94.53
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years6.3%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $160.28
The three cases
Bear0.0%$122.46
Base6.3%$160.28
Bull11.3%$197.01

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 6.3%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001448893-24-000015 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001448893-25-000009 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001448893-26-000009 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001448893-24-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001448893-25-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001448893-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001448893-24-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001448893-25-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001448893-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001448893-24-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001448893-25-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001448893-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001448893-25-000009 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001448893-26-000009 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)