MeritValue

ESCALON MEDICAL CORP

ESMCdata completeness 88%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ESCALON MEDICAL CORP earns about 4% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 92% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.01 and $0.47 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$10.5M1$10.7M2$12.2M3$12M4$12M4
Net income−$52,0235$18,0816$456,8267−$125,2618$105,5258
Operating cash flow$838,7059−$1.05M10$325,14611−$602,77112$380,72512
Capital expenditure$9,39013$014$6,68715$40,28516$3,88016
Free cash flow (derived)$829,3159−$1.05M10$318,45911−$643,05612$376,84512
Total debt$201,57517$201,57518$018——
Cash & equivalents$1.65M19$593,86920$889,67421$209,03321$545,83521
Diluted shares7.4M13.2M13.6M7.4M14.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1.34
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.07
Free cash flow it threw off
$0.26
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $1.34 of net worth that earned you $0.07 and generated $0.26 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
4% avg · 5y
FY21 -4%FY22 1%FY23 24%FY24 -7%FY25 6%

It earned about 4% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+92% shares · 5y

Share count is up 92% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.01 and $0.47 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$0.47
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$318,459
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$0.43
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$318,459
Earnings Power Value
$0.01
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$18,081
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $0.43
The three cases
Bear0.0%$0.36
Base5.0%$0.43
Bull10.0%$0.53

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000862668-22-000023 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000862668-23-000022 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000862668-24-000022 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001628280-25-043095 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000862668-22-000023 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000862668-23-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000862668-24-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001628280-25-043095 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000862668-22-000023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000862668-23-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000862668-24-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001628280-25-043095 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000862668-22-000023 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000862668-23-000022 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000862668-24-000022 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001628280-25-043095 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000862668-22-000023 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000862668-23-000022 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000862668-23-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000862668-24-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001628280-25-043095 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)