MeritValue

ELBIT SYSTEMS LTD

ESLTdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ELBIT SYSTEMS LTD earns about 11% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 6% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $60.84 and $417.59 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5.28B1$5.51B2$5.97B3$6.83B3$7.94B4
Net income$274.4M5$275.4M6$215.1M7$321.1M7$534.3M7
Operating cash flow$416.9M8$240.1M9$113.7M10$534.6M10$778.4M10
Capital expenditure$188.6M11$205.1M12$187M13$215.1M13$225.6M13
Free cash flow (derived)$228.3M8$35M9−$73.3M10$319.6M10$552.8M10
Total debt$798.3M14$616.8M15$116.5M16$102M17$101.5M17
Cash & equivalents$259M18$211.1M19$197.4M20$265.4M21$635.1M21
Diluted shares44.3M44.6M44.6M44.7M46.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$880.17
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$113.89
Free cash flow it threw off
$117.82
Debt you’d be carrying
$21.62

10 shares is a claim on $880.17 of net worth that earned you $113.89 and generated $117.82 of cash last year, against $21.62 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY21 9%FY22 10%FY23 12%FY24 10%FY25 14%

It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+6% shares · 5y

Share count is up 6% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 87% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $60.84 and $417.59 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$417.59
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$319.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$233.44
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$319.6M
Earnings Power Value
$60.84
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$275.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$150.19
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $233.44
The three cases
Bear0.0%$108.69
Base20.0%$233.44
Bull20.0%$233.44

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-013449 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-013971 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001027664-26-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001027664-26-000005 (Revenues)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-013449 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-013971 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001027664-26-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-013449 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-013971 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001027664-26-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-013449 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-013971 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001027664-26-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-014328 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-013449 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-013971 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001027664-26-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-014328 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-013449 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-013971 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001027664-26-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)