MeritValue

ESCALADE INC

ESCAdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ESCALADE INC earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $10.24 and $45.43 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$313.6M1$313.8M1$263.6M2$251.5M3$240.2M3
Net income$24.4M4$18M4$9.83M5$13M6$13.7M6
Operating cash flow$939,0007$8.52M7$48.3M8$36M9$31M9
Capital expenditure$9.7M10$2.11M10$2.09M11$2.04M12$2.51M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$8.76M7$6.41M7$46.2M8$34M9$28.5M9
Total debt$115.1M13$189.8M13$101.8M14$51.2M15$36.9M15
Cash & equivalents$4.37M16$3.97M17$16,00018$4.19M18$11.9M18
Diluted shares13.9M13.7M13.9M14.0M13.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$124.96
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$9.88
Free cash flow it threw off
$20.56
Debt you’d be carrying
$26.62

10 shares is a claim on $124.96 of net worth that earned you $9.88 and generated $20.56 of cash last year, against $26.62 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 6%FY23 5%FY24 7%FY25 7%

It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 68% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $10.24 and $45.43 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$45.43
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$34M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$41.74
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$34M
Earnings Power Value
$10.24
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$13.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$16.68
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $41.74
The three cases
Bear0.0%$33.25
Base5.0%$41.74
Bull10.0%$51.89

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001437749-24-009943 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-006863 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006094 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001437749-24-009943 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-006863 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006094 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001437749-24-009943 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-006863 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006094 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001437749-24-009943 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-006863 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006094 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001437749-24-009943 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-006863 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006094 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001437749-24-009943 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-006863 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006094 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)