MeritValue

ESAB Corp

ESABdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

ESAB Corp earns about 8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 2% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $38.36 and $107.47 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.43B1$2.59B2$2.77B3$2.74B3$2.84B3
Net income$235.1M4$223.7M4$205.3M5$264.8M6$226.8M6
Operating cash flow$250.7M7$214.4M8$330.5M9$355.4M9$260.6M9
Capital expenditure$35.6M10$40.2M11$48.2M12$51.8M12$47.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$215.2M7$174.1M8$282.3M9$303.6M9$213.3M9
Total debt$013$2.44B14$2.04B15$1.08B16$1.23B16
Cash & equivalents$41.2M17$72M18$102M19$249.4M20$185.9M20
Diluted shares60.0M60.2M60.7M61.1M61.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$353.55
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$37.01
Free cash flow it threw off
$34.81
Debt you’d be carrying
$201.57

10 shares is a claim on $353.55 of net worth that earned you $37.01 and generated $34.81 of cash last year, against $201.57 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 6%FY23 6%FY24 11%FY25 8%

It earned about 8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is up 2% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $38.36 and $107.47 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$107.47
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth9.5%
  • fcfBase$282.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$81.57
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth9.5%
  • fcfBase$282.3M
Earnings Power Value
$38.36
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$226.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$54.03
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years9.5%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $81.57
The three cases
Bear0.0%$48.71
Base9.5%$81.57
Bull14.5%$103.83

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 9.5%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001877322-24-000035 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001877322-25-000021 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001877322-26-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001877322-23-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001877322-25-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001877322-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001877322-24-000035 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001877322-25-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001877322-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001877322-24-000035 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001877322-25-000021 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001877322-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001877322-23-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001877322-24-000035 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001877322-25-000021 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001877322-26-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001877322-23-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001877322-24-000035 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001877322-25-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001877322-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)