Energy Recovery, Inc.
ERIIdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on fileEnergy Recovery, Inc. earns about 15% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $4.39 and $22.06 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $103.9M1 | $125.6M2 | $128.3M3 | $144.9M3 | $135M3 |
| Net income | $14.3M4 | $24M5 | $21.5M6 | $23.1M6 | $23M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $13.5M7 | $12.6M8 | $26.1M9 | $20.5M9 | $18.8M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $6.68M10 | $4.23M11 | $2.57M12 | $1.3M12 | $1.33M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $6.84M7 | $8.4M8 | $23.5M9 | $19.2M9 | $17.4M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $74.4M13 | $56.4M14 | $68.1M15 | $29.6M15 | $48.1M15 |
| Diluted shares | 58.7M | 57.6M | 57.7M | 57.8M | 54.2M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $38.07 of net worth that earned you $4.24 and generated $3.22 of cash last year.
It earned about 15% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $4.39 and $22.06 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$19.2M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$19.2M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$23M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $5.96 |
| Base | 20.0% | $12.46 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $12.46 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001421517-24-000055 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001421517-25-000048 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001421517-26-000022 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001421517-24-000055 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001421517-25-000048 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001421517-26-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001421517-24-000055 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001421517-25-000048 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001421517-26-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001421517-24-000055 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001421517-25-000048 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001421517-26-000022 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001421517-24-000055 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001421517-25-000048 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001421517-26-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)