MeritValue

ERIE INDEMNITY CO

ERIEdata completeness 75%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'dilutedShares'; no data for concept 'sharesOutstanding'; no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'epsDiluted'

The thesis, from the filings

ERIE INDEMNITY CO earns about 28% on invested capital. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.63B1$2.84B2$3.27B3$3.8B3$4.07B3
Net income$297.9M4$298.6M5$446.1M6$600.3M6$559.3M6
Operating cash flow$402.8M7$366.2M8$381.2M9$611.2M9$686.7M9
Capital expenditure$148.8M10$67.2M11$92.6M12$124.8M12$115.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$254M7$298.9M8$288.6M9$486.4M9$571M9
Total debt$93.8M13$013———
Cash & equivalents$183.7M14$142.1M15$144.1M15$298.4M15$345.9M15
Diluted shares—————

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
28% avg · 5y
FY21 24%FY22 23%FY23 29%FY24 36%FY25 29%

It earned an average 28% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
— shares · 5y

Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
no diluted share count — cannot compute per-share value
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
no diluted share count — cannot compute per-share value
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
no diluted share count
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000922621-24-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000922621-25-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010666 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000922621-24-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000922621-25-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010666 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000922621-24-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000922621-25-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010666 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000922621-24-000006 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000922621-25-000004 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010666 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000922621-23-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000922621-25-000004 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010666 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)