MeritValue

Erasca, Inc.

ERASdata completeness 75%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Erasca, Inc. earns about -40% on equity, but has diluted owners by 328% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income−$122.8M1−$242.8M2−$125M3−$161.7M4−$124.5M4
Operating cash flow−$79.6M5−$103.3M6−$101.2M7−$109.4M8−$95.5M8
Capital expenditure$11.2M9$14.6M10$1.78M11$60,00012$128,00012
Free cash flow (derived)−$90.8M5−$117.8M6−$103M7−$109.5M8−$95.6M8
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$360.5M13$284.2M14$93.1M15$67.7M16$73.8M16
Diluted shares66.3M122.0M150.2M233.8M283.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$11.47
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$4.39
Free cash flow it threw off
−$3.37
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $11.47 of net worth that earned you −$4.39 and generated −$3.37 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-40% avg · 5y
FY21 -27%FY22 -59%FY23 -39%FY24 -38%FY25 -38%

It earned an average -40% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+328% shares · 5y

Share count is up 328% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009496 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-037193 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-042682 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-104150 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009496 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-037193 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-042682 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-104150 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009496 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-037193 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-042682 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-104150 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009496 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-037193 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-042682 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-104150 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)