MeritValue

Equinox Gold Corp.

EQXdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Equinox Gold Corp. earns about 5% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 161% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $2.92 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.08B1$952.2M2$1.09B3$912.8M4$1.82B4
Net income$554.9M5−$106M6$28.9M7$339.3M8$221.5M8
Operating cash flow$320.8M9$56.5M10$358.5M11$372.2M12$818.3M12
Capital expenditure$344.2M13$557.1M14$523.3M15$412.1M16$692.3M16
Free cash flow (derived)−$23.4M9−$500.6M10−$164.8M11−$39.9M12$126M12
Total debt$540.7M17$828M18$925M19$1.35B20$1.55B20
Cash & equivalents$310.1M21$200.8M22$192M23$239.3M23$430M23
Diluted shares301.3M307.4M318.0M455.2M785.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$73.77
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$2.82
Free cash flow it threw off
$1.6
Debt you’d be carrying
$19.79

10 shares is a claim on $73.77 of net worth that earned you $2.82 and generated $1.6 of cash last year, against $19.79 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 19%FY22 -3%FY23 0%FY24 6%FY25 1%

It earned an average 5% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+161% shares · 5y

Share count is up 161% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 188% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$2.92
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$221.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$7.62
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-004933 (Revenue)
  2. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006487 (Revenue)
  3. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-013606 (Revenue)
  4. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-022120 (Revenue)
  5. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-004933 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006487 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-013606 (ProfitLoss)
  8. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-022120 (ProfitLoss)
  9. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-004933 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006487 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-013606 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-022120 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-004933 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  14. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006487 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  15. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-013606 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  16. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-022120 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  17. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-004933 (Borrowings)
  18. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006487 (Borrowings)
  19. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-013606 (Borrowings)
  20. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-022120 (Borrowings)
  21. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006487 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  22. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-013606 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  23. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-022120 (CashAndCashEquivalents)