MeritValue

EQT Corp

EQTdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

EQT Corp earns about 4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 91% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $29.2 and $87.19 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$6.8B1$12.1B1$5.04B1$5.27B2$8.64B2
Net income−$1.14B3$1.77B4$1.74B5$230.6M5$2.04B5
Operating cash flow$1.66B6$3.47B7$3.18B8$2.83B8$5.13B8
Capital expenditure$1.06B9$1.4B10$2.02B11$2.25B11$2.29B11
Free cash flow (derived)$607.3M6$2.07B7$1.16B8$573.3M8$2.84B8
Total debt$11.2B12$11.4B13$11.6B14$18.6B15$15.6B15
Cash & equivalents$114M16$1.46B17$81M18$202.1M19$110.8M19
Diluted shares323.2M406.5M413.2M514.6M615.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$385.77
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$33.12
Free cash flow it threw off
$46.08
Debt you’d be carrying
$253.37

10 shares is a claim on $385.77 of net worth that earned you $33.12 and generated $46.08 of cash last year, against $253.37 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 -5%FY22 9%FY23 7%FY24 1%FY25 6%

It earned about 4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+91% shares · 5y

Share count is up 91% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 40% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $29.2 and $87.19 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$87.19
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.16B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$36.26
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.16B
Earnings Power Value
$29.2
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.74B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$53.6
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $36.26
The three cases
Bear0.0%$1.76
Base20.0%$36.26
Bull20.0%$36.26

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000033213-24-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000033213-26-000018 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000033213-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000033213-25-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000033213-26-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000033213-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000033213-25-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000033213-26-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000033213-24-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000033213-25-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000033213-26-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000033213-23-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000033213-24-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000033213-25-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000033213-26-000018 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000033213-23-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000033213-24-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000033213-25-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000033213-26-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)