EQUINOR ASA
EQNRdata completeness 88%11 fiscal years on fileEQUINOR ASA earns about 36% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 23% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $36.5 and $43.66 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $90.9B1 | $150.8B2 | $107.2B3 | $103.8B3 | $106.5B3 |
| Net income | $8.56B4 | $28.7B5 | $11.9B6 | $8.81B6 | $5.04B6 |
| Operating cash flow | $28.8B7 | $35.1B8 | $29.3B9 | $19.5B9 | $20B9 |
| Capital expenditure | $8.04B10 | $8.76B11 | $10.6B12 | $12.2B12 | $14B12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $20.8B7 | $26.4B8 | $18.7B9 | $7.29B9 | $5.98B9 |
| Total debt | $27.7B13 | $26.7B14 | $24.6B15 | $21.5B15 | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $14B16 | $9.45B17 | $8.07B17 | $5.9B17 | $5.04B17 |
| Diluted shares | 3.23B | 3.12B | 2.94B | 2.94B | 2.50B |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $161.68 of net worth that earned you $20.17 and generated $23.91 of cash last year.
It earned about 36% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 23% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 22% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $36.5 and $43.66 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$7.29B
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$7.29B
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$8.81B
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $43.66 |
| Base | 0.0% | $43.66 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $53.74 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140625-24-000034 (Revenue)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140625-25-000062 (Revenue)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140625-26-000013 (Revenue)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140625-24-000034 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140625-25-000062 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140625-26-000013 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140625-24-000034 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140625-25-000062 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140625-26-000013 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140625-24-000034 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140625-25-000062 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140625-26-000013 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140625-23-000036 (Borrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140625-24-000034 (Borrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140625-25-000062 (Borrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140625-25-000062 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140625-26-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalents)