MeritValue

EQUINIX INC

EQIXdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

EQUINIX INC earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 9% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $65.17 and $115.59 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$6.64B1$7.26B2$8.19B3$8.75B3$9.22B3
Net income$500.2M4$705M5$969M6$815M6$1.35B6
Operating cash flow$2.55B7$2.96B8$3.22B9$3.25B9$3.91B9
Capital expenditure$2.75B10$2.28B11$2.78B12$3.07B12$4.31B12
Free cash flow (derived)−$204.3M7$685M8$436M9$183M9−$400M9
Total debt$11.7B13$12.9B14$14.8B15$16.5B16$1.3B16
Cash & equivalents$1.54B17$1.91B18$2.1B19$3.08B19$1.73B19
Diluted shares90.4M91.8M94.0M95.8M98.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1,442.68
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$137.58
Free cash flow it threw off
−$40.77
Debt you’d be carrying
$132.38

10 shares is a claim on $1,442.68 of net worth that earned you $137.58 and generated −$40.77 of cash last year, against $132.38 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 4%FY22 4%FY23 5%FY24 3%FY25 10%

It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+9% shares · 5y

Share count is up 9% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 89% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $65.17 and $115.59 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$115.59
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$183M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$65.17
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$183M
Earnings Power Value
$86.07
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$815M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$211.34
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $65.17
The three cases
Bear0.0%$31.01
Base20.0%$65.17
Bull20.0%$65.17

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-005350 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005126 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001101239-26-000032 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-005350 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005126 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001101239-26-000032 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-005350 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005126 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001101239-26-000032 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-005350 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005126 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001101239-26-000032 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-22-003171 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-004039 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005126 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001101239-26-000032 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-005350 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005126 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001101239-26-000032 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)