EQUITY BANCSHARES INC

EQBKdata completeness 88%13 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

EQUITY BANCSHARES INC earns about 12% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 21% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $19.62 and $29.47 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$157.4M1$188.2M2$246.7M3$296.8M3$330.8M3
Net income$52.5M4$57.7M5$7.82M6$62.6M6$22.7M6
Operating cash flow$102.7M7$74.1M8$76.5M9$73.8M9$51.4M9
Capital expenditure$5.1M10$3.48M11$15.6M12$8.49M12$13.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$97.6M7$70.6M8$61M9$65.4M9$38.1M9
Total debt$159.4M13$288.7M14$386.9M15$312.8M16$443.2M17
Cash & equivalents
Diluted shares15.3M16.4M15.6M15.7M18.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$396.63
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$12.31
Free cash flow it threw off
$20.65
Debt you’d be carrying
$240.14

10 shares is a claim on $396.63 of net worth that earned you $12.31 and generated $20.65 of cash last year, against $240.14 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
12% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 11%FY23 11%FY24 17%FY25 10%

It earned about 12% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+21% shares · 5y

Share count is up 21% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 178% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $19.62 and $29.47 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$19.62
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$61M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$23.17
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$61M
Earnings Power Value
$29.47
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$52.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$33.13
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $23.17
The three cases
Bear0.0%$23.17
Base0.0%$23.17
Bull5.0%$34.59

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-028081 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-035585 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-100184 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-028081 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-035585 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-100184 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-028081 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-035585 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-100184 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-028081 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-035585 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-100184 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-22-009338 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-007069 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-028081 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-035585 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K/A · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-100184 (LongTermDebt)