MeritValue

Equillium, Inc.

EQdata completeness 75%8 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Equillium, Inc. earns about -87% on equity, but has diluted owners by 99% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—$15.8M1$36.1M2$41.1M3—
Net income−$39.1M4−$62.4M5−$13.3M6−$8.07M7−$22.4M7
Operating cash flow−$32.1M8−$8.73M9−$21.8M10−$19M11−$22.7M11
Capital expenditure$57,00012$279,00013$50,00014$85,00015$48,00015
Free cash flow (derived)−$32.1M8−$9.01M9−$21.8M10−$19.1M11−$22.8M11
Total debt$20.4M16$18M17———
Cash & equivalents$50.4M18$59.1M19$23.2M20$18.1M21$30.3M21
Diluted shares28.8M33.7M34.7M35.4M57.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$4.99
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$3.91
Free cash flow it threw off
−$3.98
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $4.99 of net worth that earned you −$3.91 and generated −$3.98 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-87% avg · 5y
FY21 -59%FY22 -195%FY23 -59%FY24 -42%FY25 -78%

It earned an average -87% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+99% shares · 5y

Share count is up 99% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 11% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-035919 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-045726 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-124143 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009492 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-035919 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-045726 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-124143 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009492 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-035919 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-045726 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-124143 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009492 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-035919 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-045726 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-124143 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-22-004407 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009492 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009492 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-035919 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-045726 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-124143 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)