MeritValue

EPR PROPERTIES

EPRdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

EPR PROPERTIES earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 2% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $23.44 and $101.41 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$531.7M1$658M2$705.7M3$698.1M3$718.4M3
Net income$98.6M4$176.2M5$173M6$146.1M6$274.9M6
Operating cash flow$306.9M7$441.7M8$447.1M9$393.1M9$421M9
Capital expenditure$56.6M10$402.5M11$269.4M12$263.9M12$151.7M13
Free cash flow (derived)$250.4M7$39.2M8$177.7M9$129.2M9$269.2M9
Total debt$2.8B14$2.81B15$2.82B16$2.86B17$2.93B17
Cash & equivalents$288.8M18$107.9M19$78.1M19$22.1M19$90.6M19
Diluted shares74.8M75.0M75.7M76.0M76.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$304.49
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$35.94
Free cash flow it threw off
$35.19
Debt you’d be carrying
$382.95

10 shares is a claim on $304.49 of net worth that earned you $35.94 and generated $35.19 of cash last year, against $382.95 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 5%FY22 6%FY23 6%FY24 5%FY25 8%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is up 2% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $23.44 and $101.41 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$101.41
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$177.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$38.61
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$177.7M
Earnings Power Value
$23.44
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$173M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$47.4
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $38.61
The three cases
Bear0.0%−$3.93
Base20.0%$38.61
Bull20.0%$38.61

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001045450-24-000027 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001045450-25-000051 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001045450-26-000007 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001045450-24-000027 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001045450-25-000051 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001045450-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001045450-24-000027 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001045450-25-000051 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001045450-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001045450-24-000027 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001045450-24-000027 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001045450-25-000051 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001045450-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001045450-23-000033 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001045450-24-000027 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001045450-25-000051 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001045450-26-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001045450-25-000051 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001045450-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)